Voices Pushpesh Pant Sumeet Bhasin Ravi Shankar Sunaina Anand Shampa Dhar-Kamath Swami Sukhabodhananda THE new sunday express MAGAZINE Buffet People Wellness Books Food Art & Culture Entertainment September 8 2024 SUNDAY PAGES 12 Game of Thrones T By Christopher Harding his time next year, the world may find the arcana of Tibetan Buddhist reincarnation taking centre stage in global politics. For the 14th Dalai Lama, who celebrated his 89th birthday a few weeks ago, has long promised to reveal his succession plans when he turns 90. In the past, he has suggested that his reincarnation might take place in India or somewhere in the West. This will be a moment fraught with danger for Tibet and Tibetans in exile, but also for relations between two of the most powerful countries on earth: China and India. Ahead of the Dalai Lama’s announcement of his successor a few months on, India and China are already engaged over strategic control of the Tibetan border region. New Delhi will have its hands full Tibet and China go back a long way together, and theirs has rarely been a happy history At . the height of its power in the eighth century, the Tibetan kingdom’s armies fought their way into the great capital of Tang China, Chang’an, and occupied it. The Tibetan Empire would later fragment after the last king of Tibet was murdered in 842, and Buddhist teachers known as lamas would eventually come to rule in his place. They helped the Mongols to govern Tibet in the 13th century Then, in 1279, . Kublai Khan established the Yuan Dynasty, the Mongol-led dynasty of China, and Tibet became nominally part of his empire. The degree of authority over Tibetan affairs exercised by Chinese emperors of the Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties fluctuated a great deal over time, but in general they preferred indirect influence to outright control. Crucial to these arrangements was the maintaining of good relations with Tibet’s Buddhist leaders and in particular its tulkus. These were lineages of men and sometimes women who were regarded as manifestations of a particular bodhisattva: an enlightened being who puts off their entry into paradise in order to help others. By controlling the intermediate realm between death and rebirth, they were able to choose specific human incarnations, again and again, in order to continue their lineage and fulfil their salvific purpose in the world. Among the best-known Tibetan lineages are the Karmapas and the Panchen and Dalai Lamas. The lineage of the Dalai Lama goes back to the turn of the 15th century peaking with , the “Great 5th” Dalai Lama who united Tibet under his rule in 1642. Subsequent Dalai Lamas enjoyed both spiritual and political authority but found themselves embroiled in struggles for power between neighbouring Mongols and Chinese. In 1720, the Kangxi Emperor of the Qing Dynasty won a decisive victory over a Mongol rival and managed to install his favoured candidate as the 7th Dalai Lama. From then on, China’s Qing dynasty regarded Tibet as a protectorate of sorts and the question of a Dalai Lama’s reincarnation as very much their business. Yet the mysteries of reincarnation were often hard to control. Traditionally, an elderly Dalai Lama might leave written information about where he intended to be reincarnated or drop hints during the last weeks of his life. The direction in which the smoke drifted at his cremation might be watched for clues. Senior lamas would weigh these things alongside dreams or intuitions of their own before paying a visit to the homes of children who appeared to be likely candidates. There they might lay in front of the child some of the predecessor’s possessions, alongside unrelated objects, to see whether the child recognised the correct items as his own. Concerned about the political quarrels and corruption that sometimes accompanied this process, and worried more broadly about Tibetans dabbling in divination when this was supposed to be the prerogative of the imperial court, the Qianlong Emperor sought to exert some control over Tibetan reincarnations. In a move that may well have important repercussions next year, the Emperor decided in 1792 to intervene in the process of identifying reincarnations within tulku lineages. Personally doubting the Buddhist doctrine of reincarnation but resigned to managing the people of Tibet on their own terms, the Emperor had a golden urn made and sent to Lhasa. When it came time to identify a reincarnation, candidates identified in the usual way would have their names placed inside the urn. After prayers were said, a single name would be drawn by a Qing official. This wasn’t about luck or having China’s preferred candidate fortuitously selected, though it did rather usefully allow for the latter. The Golden Urn method was based on a form of divination already used in branches of China’s imperial administration and was intended as a means of avoiding human corruption and allowing fate to take its course. Qing efforts to make the method acceptable to Tibet’s elites were helped by the fact that the chosen children frequently came from wealthy and influential families. The Golden Urn method ended up being used, over the decades that followed, to finalise a number of reincarnations. Precisely how many is debated, but they may have included the 10th, 11th and 12th Dalai Lamas. After the Qing dynasty fell and a Republic of China was proclaimed in 1912, the 13th Dalai Lama sought independence for Tibet. But both the Republic and then, after 1949, the People’s Republic continued to regard Tibet as belonging to China. After the 14th Dalai Lama fled Tibet for India in 1959, China moved steadily to consolidate its control over Tibetan affairs. This included the use in 1995 of the Golden Urn to identify the 11th Panchen Lama. It was an important moment: the Dalai Lama’s favoured candidate was rejected and both the candidate and his family were disappeared into “protective” custody The People’s Republic . has since gone further still, creating a register of all those who are permitted to reincarnate after death. The state can revoke that permission at any time. It also claims authority over when the search for a new reincarnation may begin. Much of this appears to be designed to ensure that the 15th Dalai Lama will be a person with whom the Chinese Communist Party can do business. The current Dalai Lama, alongside Tibet’s government-in-exile in Dharamsala, India, rejects the idea of using the Golden Urn to identify the next Dalai Lama and insists that no candidate who is effectively chosen by the People’s Republic will be acceptable. It is highly likely as a result that within a few years we will have two people both claiming to be the 15th Dalai Lama: one in China selected using the Golden Urn, and another elsewhere chosen in the traditional way Assuming . that both are children—likely , but not inevitable—they will probably have regents speaking and acting on their behalf. Turn to page 2 Dragon’s Dilemma China’s Stakes in Tibet Tibet is considered the third largest source of water in the world Called the world’s ‘Tower of Water’, the glacial water from Tibet supply some of the largest rivers in China such as the Yellow River in the north and the Yangtze River in the south. China has the world’s second-largest population and traditionally depends on agriculture for its survival. Losing control of water resources will make Chinese agriculture and the country itself vulnerable Access to Tibet’s water resources makes money for China Since 2006, China produces bottled mineral water drawn from Tibet which it sells. India’s sovereignty claims over the region is a threat to this supply. China also claims Ladakh region belongs to it and India’s control of the region will restrict uninterrupted access to rivers Wartime infrastructure that Tibet can provide is crucial to Beijing To counter Indian military strength on the Tibet border, China must transport troops, supplies and materiel during conflict, the PLA has constructed railroads. Tibet's hard terrain and isolation hampers this capability Tibetan autonomy will imperil Chinese state control of its minorities The region’s sparse population consider themselves as Tibetans and not Chinese, thereby posing a serious internal and external border security threat. India's support for the Dalai Lama and Tibetan autonomy is a serious concern for Beijing. It will destabilise China’s control of its minorities such as separatist groups in Xingjian region and the Uyghurs who will follow suit if Tibet gets independence from Chinese control China will not accept and autonomous Tibet which contradicts Xi’s nationalism Since the Shimla Convention of 1914 established the McMahon Line, which delimits the Tibet border without China’s consent at a time when it was undergoing turmoil and suffering, China sees control of Tibet as a sign of nationalist pride to the world. This has been further strengthened by Xi’s nationalist politics An increasingly aggressive India worries China which is tightening control of Tibet as a vital move to protect its security